There is growing evidence that Russia has stepped up its attacks on Ukraine ahead of the Nov. 5 U.S. election, possibly to shore up isolationist support for Donald Trump.
The company also appears to be doubling down on this strategy ahead of Trump’s inauguration on January 20.
The British Ministry of Defense said that “November was the fifth consecutive month of increased monthly total losses for the Russian military” and Ukraine estimated that 45,680 Russian soldiers were killed or injured in November.
The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces estimated Russian losses in September and October at 38,130 and 41,980 troops, respectively.
The rising casualty figures come as Russia’s ground attacks, despite the pain they inflict, have steadily increased.
The Institute for War Studies, a Washington-based think tank, estimated that Russia’s average daily gains in Ukrainian territory were 22 square kilometers (8.5 square miles) in October and 27 square kilometers (10.4 square miles) in November.
“During intensified offensive operations in September, October and November 2024, Russian forces suffered an estimated 125,800 casualties in exchange for 2,356 square kilometers of land,” the ISW said.
These losses are far beyond what U.S. officials believe Russia can sustain. They estimate their recruitment capacity to be 25,000 to 30,000 people per month.
There has been a similar increase in air strikes in Ukraine.
Victoria Vdovychenko, program director of the Center for Defense Strategy, a Ukrainian think tank and a researcher at the Center for Geopolitics at the University of Cambridge, said: “From September 2024 to November 2024, the enemy used more than 6,000 drones and missiles Air strikes in Ukraine.
“This is three times the amount used from June to August 2024 and four times the amount used from September to November 2023,” she told Al Jazeera.
Vdovichenko believes that before and after the election, Russia also stepped up its information propaganda efforts to manipulate American public opinion.
On election day, North Korean troops were actively fighting in Russia’s Kursk region, a sign of Russia’s access to new manpower.
As President Joe Biden reacted to the defeat of Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris by authorizing U.S. weapons to strike deep inside Russia, Russian President Vladimir Putin launched an explosive missile into Ukraine. Leshnik ballistic missiles, apparently in retaliation.
But according to the New York Times, citing U.S. officials, Russian Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov recently told the U.S. foreign minister that the launch “came long before the Biden administration agreed to allow Ukraine to use U.S. ATACMS to conduct deeper inspections of Russia.” The attack was planned beforehand.”
Still, Putin was able to give the impression that it was the United States that was provoking Russia and prolonging the war.
Trump supporters acknowledge that this information is beneficial to the Trump campaign.
“President Trump’s pursuit of peace and an end to ‘never-ending wars’ benefits entrenched elites,” said Demetries, a former U.S. Navy officer, pilot and diplomat who supports Trump. Andrew Grimes said.
“The American people made it clear by electing Trump that they desire peace and an end to US funding of the war in Ukraine, reflecting growing concerns about long-term involvement in the war in Ukraine,” he told Al Jazeera.
“Since the election, the topic of negotiations has surged everywhere, especially in foreign media,” Vdovichenko said. “Yet Russia has shown no sign of being ready to negotiate because they have given no indication that they are ready to give up on anything.”
Russia steps up attacks
Russia now appears to be stepping up its attacks, doubling down on tactics that helped Trump win.
Ukraine estimates Russian casualties in the first week of December at at least 11,000, while President Volodymyr Zelenskyy puts the number of casualties from drones, missiles and glide bombs at more than 900 that week.
Putin outlined terms for June talks.
“Ukrainian troops must come from the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, as well as from Kherson and [Zaporizhia] Putin told foreign ministry officials, identifying four areas where his troops had been partially occupied by force.
Putin said: “As soon as Kyiv declares its readiness to make this decision… and formally notifies its abandonment of its plan to join NATO, we will comply with the ceasefire order and start negotiations.”
Zelensky has since outlined a “victory plan” that includes providing Ukraine with more weapons and immediate and unconditional membership in NATO to ensure its security.
In an interview with Sky News on November 30, he appeared to compromise and seek NATO membership only for Ukraine’s free regions.
“Zelensky said [there are ways of bringing this conflict to an immediate end] “If the free areas of Ukraine join NATO immediately, then deal with the occupied territories later,” said Kyle Giles, an expert on Eurasia at Chatham House, a think tank in London.
“But, he said, ‘no one has really suggested this to us.’ He knew this was impossible because NATO would not act immediately or even quickly even without the opposition of the United States and Germany. Therefore, Zelens What Key has done shows that NATO and Al-Nusra lack the political will to actually find a viable solution to the conflict.
A majority of Ukrainians prefer to keep fighting, according to a poll released this week.
“64.1% of Ukrainians believe that negotiations with Russia are not worthwhile unless Ukraine receives real security guarantees from the West,” the Kiev-based think tank the Center for a New Europe said after its annual poll in December. “The argument is that Russia will start war again after a brief pause,” it said.
Will Trump give up on Ukraine?
Some observers believe that Trump has deprived Ukraine of the battlefield initiative after a counteroffensive in 2023.
Last fall, he pressured Republican members of Congress to deny $60.4 billion in military aid and succeeded in delaying it for six months.
“If you look at the pattern of Russia’s slow, incremental, steady advance, it seems to have started after the Ukrainians had weakened their ability to defend themselves by withholding aid, ultimately leading to a starvation of artillery fire on the front lines,” Kyle said. Giles is an expert on Eurasia at the London think tank Chatham House.
In February, Ukraine was on the defensive due to suppressive firepower from Russian forces.
“[Trump’s administration] “We are looking for a quick fake ceasefire rather than a real and lasting ceasefire,” Giles said. “That’s why soon after Trump takes office, we may see aid suspended or withdrawn entirely,” he told Al Jazeera.
Days earlier, Trump told NBC that Ukraine “probably” should prepare for U.S. aid cuts.
“Ukraine is absolutely dependent on the United States, so if aid is reduced for some reason, then that will have a significant impact. Ukraine may have to give up more territory,” said Michael Gjerstad, a land warfare research analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a think tank in London. .
“If assistance in terms of logistical and intelligence support were completely cut, it would be the end of Ukraine and put Putin in a much better position in the negotiations,” he told Al Jazeera. “Even if European countries could step in, it would not be enough to fill the gap that the United States has provided. ”
Not everyone sees it that way.
“Of the $60 billion provided by the United States, only $11.5 billion is used for procurement for Ukraine,” said Oleksandr Danylyuk, a Kiev-based associate researcher at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank.
He said he believed Ukraine had performed miracles with one hand tied behind its back.
“There is a continuing shortage of equipment and ammunition, which is why Russia has made some progress,” he told Al Jazeera. “It’s a wonder they didn’t do better because they outnumbered the Ukrainians. In 2022, they initially had 140,000, in 2023 there were about 500,000, and now there are about 800,000.
About one million people in Ukraine wear military uniforms, including logistical and administrative services as well as combat units.
‘Willing’ European Union pledges support for Ukraine
If Trump does reject Ukraine and force Zelensky to negotiate, Finnish Institute for International Affairs (FIIA) researcher Minna Alander is optimistic that Europe can fill the gap.
“The four Nordic countries – Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden – have donated and committed a total of $35 billion, excluding contributions to EU aid. This exceeds Germany’s current level of support and commitment to Ukraine,” she told Al Jazeera.
“A coalition of the willing, consisting of the Nordics, the Baltic states, Poland and the UK, and possibly France, is also being formed to ensure that European aid continues to flow even if Germany and the US slow down. Denmark has been in the lead with its commitment to Ukraine to US$8.5 billion, and Norway recently increased its long-term aid package to US$12 billion.
Hanna Olofsson, a spokesperson for the Swedish defense contractors’ union SOFF, said that in some areas, Ukraine will not have replacements.
“In certain market segments – such as medium-altitude long-endurance drones, tactical ballistic missiles and long-range artillery rockets – there are currently no European solutions on the market due to lack of investment, priorities and industrial policy decisions by European governments.” In the past Decades,” she told Al Jazeera.
Whatever Europe does, many on the continent realize that even the Biden administration doesn’t have a plan.
“It would be nice to have a joint strategy,” Giles said. “It is painfully clear that the United States has never been interested in a victory in Ukraine because it would also mean a defeat for Russia, and the current administration is more concerned about the consequences of Russia’s defeat than the destruction of Ukraine.”
