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Bill Connelly, ESPN staff writer
Each game has its own personality. Sometimes we get into a lot of trouble in the early rounds, which usually results in Cinderella getting blown away in the later rounds. Sometimes we’d get chalk early, which wasn’t particularly fun, but made for some huge late games.
The latter was chosen for the 2024 FCS playoffs. It wasn’t all plain sailing in the first two rounds: Lehigh beat Richmond in the first round; Illinois beat Southeast Missouri in a wild turnover session; 10 of 16 teams Score at least 34 points (scoring is fun).
But the top eight seeds all advanced to the quarterfinals with minimal drama. This gives us four particularly interesting matchups to look forward to this weekend.
• No. 8 Idaho, No. 1 Montana (Friday, 9 p.m. ET, ESPN)
• No. 6 South Dakota State No. 3 Incarnate Word (Saturday, noon, ESPN)
• No. 5 UC Davis, No. 4 South Dakota State (Saturday, 3 p.m., ESPN+)
• No. 7 Mercer, No. 2 North Dakota (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ABC)
Ignoring games against FBS teams and each other, Montana, South Dakota State, North Dakota State and South Dakota State have a combined 41-0 record against the remaining FCS teams against the other four quarterfinal teams The record is 3-0. In fact, MSU and San Diego State have already beaten each other in the quarterfinals — San Diego State beat UIW 45-24 in Week 2, MSU beat UIW 38-3 in mid-October. 7 beat Idaho State.
In other words, we could have one more round of chalk games before a truly epic semi-final. But it only takes one or two for each of the four losers to make things awkward. Let’s look at each game in chronological order.
Playoff results so far: MSU Defense. UT Martin 49-17; Idaho defense. Lehigh 34-13
Offensive SP+ ranking: Michigan State University No. 1, Idaho State No. 19
Defense SP+ ranking: Michigan State No. 2, Idaho State No. 19
College football often makes you wait your turn. Kirby Smart’s Georgia lost four straight games to Nick Saban’s Alabama dynasty before finally breaking through in 2021. They lost 12 games to North Dakota State, including four in the playoffs, before winning five straight and en route to the past two national championships. Ferris State lost in the Division II semifinals or finals three times in four years before winning back-to-back titles. Wisconsin-Whitewater took the Division III title from Mount Union and then relinquished it to Mary Hardin-Baylor, which in turn relinquished it to North Central.
We don’t know yet if South Dakota State is ready to relinquish control of the FCS. The Jackrabbits aren’t quite as dominant as last year’s historic team, but they’re still capable of winning three more games and claiming their third straight title. That said, Montana State has been by far the best team in the country. The Bobcats rank first in SP+, first in scoring offense, first in total offense, second in rushing yards per game, second in passing efficiency and ranked in scoring defense. Sixth and seventh in total defense.
Quarterback Tommy Mellott has passed for 2,256 yards, a touchdown-to-score ratio of 26-1, and rushed for 659 yards. Scottre Humphrey and Adam Jones rushed for a combined 2,298 yards and 24 touchdowns. In the highly competitive Big Sky, the Bobcats have eight players: Mellott, Humphrey (Humphrey), linebacker Rohan Jones, offensive linemen Marcus Wehr and Conner Moore, defensive end Brody Grebe , LB Mccade O’Reilly and DB Rylan Ortt earned first-team All-Conference honors.
The Bobcats are certainly waiting for their turn. Since returning to the FCS playoffs in 2018, they have reached the semifinals or finals three times and been eliminated by NDSU or SDSU in each postseason trip. But the margins of defeat last season — 32 points, 28 points, 28 points, 21 points, 1 point — certainly indicate that the gap is closing. But they have to win two more games, including a rematch with Idaho State, before worrying about NDSU or SDSU.
With Mellott’s 121 passing yards, 140 rushing yards and four touchdowns, MSU led 24-0 at halftime in MSU’s first game of the year against Idaho State Leading with a record of 38 -7. Total yards: MSU 485, Idaho State 267. First of all, they’re really good and it’s hard to beat a really good team twice. Second, Idaho State quarterback Jake Ryan is back.
Ryan threw and rushed for a touchdown in the season opener against Oregon but was sidelined for two months due to injury. In the past three games since returning, he has completed 52 of 72 passes for 830 yards, nine touchdowns and only one interception. Receivers Jordan Dwyer and Mark Hamper have 38 catches for 674 yards and eight touchdowns in these three games. Idaho’s offense has turned on and the defense has been very good, at least against non-Montana teams. This was definitely not a slam dunk for the Bobcats.
ESPN BET predictions: MSU 33.5, Idaho 22.0 (MSU -11.5, over/under 55.5)
SP+projection: MSU 38.3, Idaho State 19.0
Playoff results so far: SDSU definition. Montana 35-18; UIW def. Villanova 13-6
Offensive SP+ ranking: SDSU No. 3, UIW No. 14
Defense SP+ ranking: SDSU ranked first, UIW ranked 13th
The second quarterfinals are also a rematch. Zach Calzada throws a 69-yard touchdown pass to Jalen Walthall early in the third quarter to pull UIW up 17-17 in a Week 2 matchup at SDSU To tie the game, Calzada’s 35-yard touchdown pass to Roy Alexander cut SDSU’s lead to 31-24 early in the fourth quarter. The Jackrabbits won 45-24 in a touchdown-fumble-touchdown victory, but UIW defeated SDSU by an average score of 7.1 to 7.0. This is a battle.
Calzada, the former Texas A&M and Auburn quarterback, has thrown for 3,533 yards and 34 touchdowns, and Walsall and Alexander both have over 1,000 receiving yards. Calzada and Walsall are two of Incarnate Word’s six first-team South Division offensive players. While Brookings’ defense hasn’t been great (or was in a 35-28 loss to Southern Illinois the next week), the Cardinals have had 6 players score 20 points or more in 6 of their last 8 opponents. Four players, led by linebacker Mr. Williams, had at least 11 tackles for loss. The 2022 semifinalists have won 10 straight games.
However, SDSU is still SDSU. The Jacks feature two All-Missouri Valley forwards (Evan Berntson and Gus Miller) who average 6-foot-4, 304 pounds and three players led by Amar Johnson The running back clears the way. Meanwhile, quarterback and 2023 Walter Payton Award winner Mark Gronowski has rarely been asked to carry the load this season (he has only thrown one pass over the past five SDSU games 25 times), but he has thrown for 2,341 yards and 19 touchdowns.
SDSU’s defense will likely determine whether this is a game or not. The Jacks are allowing just 12.9 points per game, up from 9.0 since UIW left the team. They had five players named to the MVFC first team, including stalwart safety Tucker Large and tackle-machine linebacker Adam Bock. They’ve been untouchable as of late, but UIW did rough them up some the last time these teams met. SDSU can win the track and field meet if necessary, but that might also be the only way UIW can pull off an upset.
ESPN BET predictions: SDSU 36.5, UIW 18.0 (SDSU -18.5, over/under 54.5)
SP+projection: SDSU 32.2, UIW 18.3
Playoff results so far: NDSU Definition. Abilene Christian 51-31; Mercer Defense. Rhode Island 17-10
Offensive SP+ ranking: NDSU ranked second, Mercer ranked 16th
Defense SP+ ranking: Mercer seventh, NDSU 10th
Mercer won its first playoff game last season but lost to South Dakota State in the second round. The Bears, led by Mike Jacobs, took a step closer by reaching the quarterfinals for the first time this season, but now another heavyweight team in the FCS awaits. NDSU is six points shy of its undefeated streak in Tim Polasek’s first season and has scored at least 51 points in three of its last five games.
Quarterback Cam Miller, the Missouri Valley Offensive Player of the Year, completed 74 percent of his passes, while No. 1 receiver Bryce Lance (Trey’s brother) also had two 100 yards game. As always, the Bison will rely on the run if you let them, and with CharMar Brown and Barika Kpeenu behind a line that averages 6-5, 304 pounds, they’ll rely even more on the run.
This isn’t NDSU’s best defense ever; the Bison have allowed at least 24 points in five games and at least 21 points in three straight games. But the front seven still has disruptive anchors such as closer Eli Mostaert and linebacker Logan Kopp, which is a huge advantage for a running back with a lot of firepower (Dwayne Dwayne McGee (1,132 yards) is very important to the Mercer offense as a freshman quarterback. Whitt Newbauer replaced injured DJ Smith late in the season, and although Smith played a small role with his legs last week against Rhode Island, the game plan Still used a lot of McGee and backup CJ Miller (total: 31 rushes, 195 yards). Neubauer went 10-for-20 for just 57 yards and four sacks. If the Bears can’t run the ball well, they won’t score much.
Of course, they also ensure that their opponent Not good at running the ball. They allowed an FCS-low 66.9 rushing yards per game and 2.3 yards per carry (3.3 without sacks). Young’s closers Brayden Manley and Andrew Zook combined for 30 TFLs and 15 sacks.
If you like burly men’s basketball, this is the game for you. NDSU’s running game against Mercer’s run defense will be available for viewing by appointment only.
ESPN BET predictions: NDSU 36.3, Mercer 17.3 (NDSU -19, over/under 53.5)
SP+projection: NDSU 30.8, Mercer 19.1
Playoff results so far: USD Definition Tarleton State 42-31; UCD Definition. Illinois 42-10
Offensive SP+ ranking: USD fourth, UCD ninth
Defense SP+ ranking: USD 5th, UCD 15th
UC Davis caused a stir this week when it announced it would join the Mountain West in all sports except football. The football team will still be a Big Sky affiliate, but make no mistake: These Aggies could have done well at this year’s MWC.
Former Boise State offensive coordinator Tim Plow took over the retiring Dan Hawkins job in Davis and immediately led the Aggies back to the playoffs for the first time in three years. The Bobcats’ 30-28 loss to Montana State on November 16 was the Bobcats’ only close win over an FCS team all season and their first playoff win since 2018 ( (also their second ever), they knocked on the door of No. 12 Illinois State, 42-10, last week.
All-purpose star Lan Larison threw for 191 yards from scrimmage against the Cardinals, raising his season rushing and receiving yards to an incredible 1,425 and 842 yards. If you overcompensate against Larison, quarterback Myles Hastings (4,148 yards, 35 touchdowns) will pass the ball to one of five other targets with at least 33 catches Ignite your anger. The Aggies have enough weapons to beat even a good defense, but South Dakota State has more than that. The Coyotes allowed just 16.3 points per game thanks to the formidable tandem of MVFC Defensive Player of the Year Mi’Quise Grace and Nick Gaes (combined: 28 TFL, 17.5 sacks).
However, USD has allowed at least 28 points in three straight games, which could mean the offense will have to hold its own in the track meet. This is doable. The Yotes also ranked fourth in offensive SP+ and have the ability to beat teams on either run – Charles Pierre Jr. And Travis Theis combined for 2,159 yards and 31 touchdowns behind a huge running back who averaged 6-6 and 310 pounds on the line — or pass line. Left-handed quarterback Aidan Bouman completed 69% of his passes and advanced 13.7 yards per attempt. UC Davis has a strong safety in Cavell Baynes (8.5 TFL, 15 passes defended), but South Dakota State has a lot to offer here as well.
ESPN BET predictions: South Dakota State 30.5, UC Davis 25.0 (-$5.5, over/under 55.5)
SP+projection: South Dakota State 26.8, UC Davis 18.6
